Global markets overview : tracking recent asset price moves and our outlook

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      <subfield code="a">Unpredictability and uncertainty are important factors in gauging the current outlook  it's important to understand what we don't know. We are not scientists or medical experts and, therefore, we are not trying to forecast the pathway for the number of COVID-19 cases. However, we are tracking the things we know are important on the medical side, e.g., time to implement social distancing, the number and rate of change of cases and deaths, test count per million people, utilisation of hospital capacity, etc. And, of course, we are also tracking key shortterm economic and financial indicators  travel reduction, claims for unemployment, spending on durable goods, recovery speeds in countries such as China and Taiwan, and market liquidity. One of the main economic risks we are focusing on is whether the fiscal policies and government support can be successfully implemented at the individual small-and-medium sized business level. These companies make up a high proportion of employment, which means any significant rise in liquidity and default risk would add materially to falls in incomes and spending.</subfield>
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