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The Future of metabolic health and weight loss drugs : projecting mortality reductions in the US and UK populations

 
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<title>Future of metabolic health and weight loss drugs</title>
<subTitle>: projecting mortality reductions in the US and UK populations</subTitle>
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<namePart>Swiss Re Institute</namePart>
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<namePart>Swiss Re Institute</namePart>
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<publisher>Swiss Re Institute</publisher>
<dateIssued>2025</dateIssued>
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<extent>23 p.</extent>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">The widespread use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs to treat obesity could significantly reduce cumulative all-cause mortality by 2045up to 6.4% in the US and 5.1% in the UKaccording to the modelling presented. These reductions are expected to come primarily from lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and improved outcomes in other conditions, assuming clinical trial results translate into real-world effectiveness. This has major implications for life and health insurers, potentially reshaping claims and lowering costs for longevity-related products. However, GLP-1 drugs have not yet demonstrated long-term improvements in population-level metabolic health. The US, with the highest adult obesity rate among developed countries (40.3%), is projected to exceed 55% by 2050 without intervention. GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide and tirzepatide have shown substantial weight loss in trials, but real-world effectiveness may vary. In baseline projections, mortality reductions are 4% (US) and 3.2% (UK), while pessimistic scenarios suggest smaller impacts (2.3% and 1.8%). Risks include discontinuation due to lack of lifestyle support and concerns over muscle and bone loss. For insurers, while mortality and critical illness portfolios may benefit, longevity portfolios could face financial pressure due to longer lifespans and extended pension payouts</abstract>
<tableOfContents displayLabel="Contents">Metabolic ill-health and mortality -- Metabolic ill-health trends: the US and UK -- GLP-1 drugs and mortality reductions: our modelling approach -- The US and UK 2045 mortality reduction projections -- Risks associated with GLP-1 drugs -- Implications for L&H insurance -- Swiss Re's vision of metabolic health</tableOfContents>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Swiss Re Institute</note>
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<topic>Salud</topic>
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<topic>Obesidad</topic>
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<topic>Productos farmacéuticos</topic>
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<topic>Proyecciones</topic>
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<topic>Tablas de mortalidad</topic>
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<topic>Riesgo cardiovascular</topic>
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<topic>Vigilancia de la salud</topic>
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<geographic>Estados Unidos</geographic>
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<geographic>Reino Unido</geographic>
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<url displayLabel="electronic resource" usage="primary display">https://www.swissre.com/risk-knowledge/living-longer-healthier-lives/future-of-metabolic-health-and-weight-loss-drugs.html</url>
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<recordCreationDate encoding="marc">250929</recordCreationDate>
<recordChangeDate encoding="iso8601">20250930092111.0</recordChangeDate>
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