Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Global economics intelligence. Released August 2025 (data through July 2025) : critical trends and risks

Publicación: New York : McKinsey & Company, 2025Descripción física: 27 p.Notas: Sumario: The document provides a comprehensive overview of global economic dynamics as of mid-2025, highlighting subdued consumer confidence despite stable consumption, a return to contraction in manufacturing across most economies, and continued strength in the services sectorexcept in Brazil and Russia. Trade patterns are shifting amid ongoing tariff negotiations, with export and import trends diverging across regions. Supply chain pressures have eased, and freight rates are declining from earlier peaks. Inflation shows mixed signals: rising in developed economies like the UK and US, but decelerating in emerging markets. Commodity prices are fluctuating, with copper falling and food prices driven up by dairy and vegetable oils. Financial markets reflect volatility and investor caution, particularly in India, while central banks adjust interest rates, with the Bank of England cutting rates and anticipation building around potential Fed actionÁmbito geográfico: InternacionalContiene: Tariff negotiations continue, with trade patterns reconfiguring; consumer confidence remains subdued though consumption stable; manufacturing under pressure -- Consumer confidence remains subdued, though some signs of improvement are visible -- Consumption remains stable -- Manufacturing has returned to contraction, while growth in the global services sector has accelerated -- Manufacturing in most economies slipped into contraction in July, although India stood out with accelerating growth -- Services sector remained strong across countries, except in Brazil and Russia, where contractions have deepened -- Export growth diverged in June, led by a strong rebound in US, China, and emerging markets -- Import demand shifted unevenly in June, with Eurozone, Brazil, and Mexico up, but India contracting -- Global container trade volume steadied in July, gradually receding from year-to-date high in April -- Supply chain stress eased in July as June port volumes stabilized from earlier peaks -- Inbound spot freight rates fell in August, cooling from 2025 highs -- Outbound freight rates to Shanghai eased in July after June's sharp spike -- Consumer inflation accelerated in the UK, while producer prices in the US reached their highest level this year -- Emerging economies, in contrast, experienced a deceleration in both consumer and producer prices -- Precious metals continue to climb as livestock prices also trend up -- Gold prices remained stable in August amid Fed rate-cut optimism -- Energy prices remained stable in August, with oil oscillating in the $65$70 range -- Copper prices have declined by around 15% since the end of July, in response to stockpiled inventories -- Inflation expectations have been broadly unchanged since July -- Dairy and vegetable oils were the biggest drivers of July's food price increases -- India's equity markets experienced a decline, driven by tariff fears and sell-offs by foreign portfolio investors -- Volatility eased across the board -- No change in the cost of capital across the board, except in India, where it rose to its highest level since March 2025 -- Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points; all eyes now on the Fed, amid rising optimism about cut in SeptemberMateria / lugar / evento: Globalización de la economía Comportamiento del consumidor Comercio internacional Sector servicios Aranceles Importación y exportación Inflación Mercados financieros Precios Tipos de interés Perspectivas económicas Incertidumbre Otros autores: McKinsey & Company
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