Global trade uncertainty clouds Canadian economic outlook

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<title>Global trade uncertainty clouds Canadian economic outlook</title>
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<publisher>A.M. Best Company Inc</publisher>
<dateIssued>2025</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">The report examines the impact of global trade uncertainty on Canada's economic outlook, highlighting how rising tariffs and policy instability have disrupted exports, weakened business investment, and dampened consumer sentiment. Although Canada's GDP showed resilience in early 2025 due to pre-tariff trade activity, growth contracted in the second quarter as exports to the U.S. declined sharply. The labor market is softening, with rising unemployment and cautious hiring, while inflation has moderated, allowing the Bank of Canada to continue easing interest rates. However, persistent risks from trade tensions, volatile commodity markets, and slowing domestic demand continue to cloud the economic forecast</abstract>
<tableOfContents displayLabel="Contents">Global trade uncertainty clouds Canadian economic outlook -- Principal takeaways -- Economic activity is expected to slow -- Tariffs complicate the Canadian economic outlook -- Canadian consumers concerned about employment and inflation -- Economic conditions allow Bank of Canada to continue easing</tableOfContents>
<note type="statement of responsibility">A.M. Best Company Inc</note>
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<topic>Perspectivas económicas</topic>
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<topic>Aranceles</topic>
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<topic>Datos macroeconómicos</topic>
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<topic>Mercado de trabajo</topic>
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<topic>Riesgos geopolíticos</topic>
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<topic>Inflación</topic>
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<topic>Volatilidad en los mercados</topic>
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<geographic>Canadá</geographic>
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<url displayLabel="electronic resource" usage="primary display">https://web.ambest.com/docs/default-source/events/bests-special-report---global-trade-uncertainty-clouds-canadian-economic-outlook.pdf?sfvrsn=27085146_1</url>
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<title>Best's special report</title>
<partNumber>October 24, 2025</partNumber>
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