Mortality forecasting in geographical space and time

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<title>Mortality forecasting in geographical space and time</title>
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<name type="personal" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20260008042">
<namePart>Vékás, Péter </namePart>
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<namePart>International Actuarial Association</namePart>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">The article analyses advanced methodologies for mortality forecasting by incorporating spatial and temporal dependencies across populations. Classical LeeCarter and LiLee models are extended through dynamic panel econometric techniques and spatio-temporal models. The study compares different forecasting methods applied to mortality data from 22 European countries. Both point estimate accuracy and the quality of prediction intervals are evaluated. The results show significant improvements in longevity risk modelling for actuarial and demographic applications</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Gábor Szentkereszti and Péter Vékás</note>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080599300">
<topic>Tablas de mortalidad</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080592011">
<topic>Modelos actuariales</topic>
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<topic>Modelo Lee-Carter</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080608538">
<topic>Seguros de vida riesgo</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080552114">
<topic>Pensiones</topic>
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<title>Astin bulletin</title>
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<publisher>Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">0515-0361</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000420</identifier>
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<text>20/04/2026 Volumen 56 Número 2 - abril 2026 , 22 p.</text>
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