Population ageing and the productivity of public capital: A panel cointegration analysis of Japanese prefectural data

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      <subfield code="a">Population ageing and the productivity of public capital: A panel cointegration analysis of Japanese prefectural data</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Keigo Kameda ... [et al.]</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">This paper examines how population aging affects the long-run productivity of public capital using Japanese prefectural data from 19812020. Employing panel cointegration techniques (AMG and CCEMG estimators), the study estimates output elasticities of public capital within a production-function framework. Results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between aging and public capital productivity: highest in moderately aging regions and lowest in both younger and highly aged areas. Sectoral analysis shows that transportation infrastructure suffers from diminishing returns in aged regions due to overinvestment and lower land prices, while education infrastructure faces inefficiencies from dispersed schools and human capital outflows. Findings underscore the need for demographic-sensitive public investment strategies, emphasizing consolidation and optimization in aged areas and careful evaluation of new projects in younger regions.</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University</subfield>
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      <subfield code="g">13/04/2026 Volumen 34 - 2026 </subfield>
      <subfield code="t">The Journal of the economics of ageing </subfield>
      <subfield code="d">Oxford : Elsevier ScienceDirect, 2021-</subfield>
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      <subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2026.100636</subfield>
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