OECD wconomic outlook : under pressure

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      <subfield code="a">Volume 2026-1, no. 119, June 2026</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Editorial: Under pressure -- 1. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation -- 2. From energy shocks to stronger resilience -- 3. The fiscal and economic impacts of higher defence spending -- 4. Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook assesses the impact of the evolving Middle East conflict on the global economy. It presents two scenarios: a time limited disruption with energy supply normalising from Q3 2026, under which global growth moderates in 2026 and recovers in 2027; and a prolonged disruption extending into late2027, with significantly weaker growth, higher inflation, and strained energy intensive sectors. The report reviews transmission channels energy, trade, finance and policy responses, including targeted fiscal relief, vigilant monetary policy, and measures to bolster energy security. It also analyses the fiscal and macroeconomic consequences of rising defence spending, and provides country notes for OECD members and selected partners. Structural priorities include rebuilding fiscal buffers, safeguarding financial stability, accelerating the cleanenergy transition, strengthening grids and storage, and advancing reforms to raise productivity and resilience</subfield>
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      <subfield code="u">https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/06/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2026-issue-1_8be0dba6/2d1956f0-en.pdf</subfield>
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