Financial valuation of retirement village via stochastic modelling of disability prevalence rates / Jackie Li...[et al.] Sumario: The article develops Bayesian common factor models to project disability prevalence and mortality rates by age and sex in Australia. Based on these stochastic projections, the expected duration of residence in retirement villages is estimated and the associated contracts are financially valued. The approach incorporates both process and parameter uncertainty using MCMC simulations. The results make it possible to calculate expected present values and equivalent annuities in order to assess business profitability and risk. The study provides a novel methodology for the actuarial valuation of contracts linked to population ageing En: Astin bulletin. - Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association = ISSN 0515-0361. - 20/04/2026 Volumen 56 Número 2 - abril 2026 , 27 p. 1. Cálculo actuarial . 2. Mortalidad . 3. Envejecimiento de la población . 4. Residencias de la tercera edad . 5. Esperanza de vida . I. Li, Jackie . II. International Actuarial Association .
Centro de Documentación y Conocimiento
Centro de Documentación y Conocimiento