Financial valuation of retirement village via stochastic modelling of disability prevalence rates

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-8.xsd">
<mods version="3.8">
<titleInfo>
<title>Financial valuation of retirement village via stochastic modelling of disability prevalence rates</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20120024595">
<namePart>Li, Jackie</namePart>
<nameIdentifier>MAPA20120024595</nameIdentifier>
</name>
<name type="corporate" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20100017661">
<namePart>International Actuarial Association</namePart>
<nameIdentifier>MAPA20100017661</nameIdentifier>
</name>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
<genre authority="marcgt">periodical</genre>
<originInfo>
<place>
<placeTerm type="code" authority="marccountry">bel</placeTerm>
</place>
<dateIssued encoding="marc">2026</dateIssued>
<issuance>serial</issuance>
</originInfo>
<language>
<languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm>
</language>
<physicalDescription>
<form authority="marcform">print</form>
</physicalDescription>
<abstract displayLabel="Summary">The article develops Bayesian common factor models to project disability prevalence and mortality rates by age and sex in Australia. Based on these stochastic projections, the expected duration of residence in retirement villages is estimated and the associated contracts are financially valued. The approach incorporates both process and parameter uncertainty using MCMC simulations. The results make it possible to calculate expected present values and equivalent annuities in order to assess business profitability and risk. The study provides a novel methodology for the actuarial valuation of contracts linked to population ageing</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Jackie Li...[et al.]</note>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080579258">
<topic>Cálculo actuarial</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080555306">
<topic>Mortalidad</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080625597">
<topic>Envejecimiento de la población</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080626242">
<topic>Residencias de la tercera edad</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080580377">
<topic>Esperanza de vida</topic>
</subject>
<classification authority="">6</classification>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Astin bulletin</title>
</titleInfo>
<originInfo>
<publisher>Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association</publisher>
</originInfo>
<identifier type="issn">0515-0361</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000420</identifier>
<part>
<text>20/04/2026 Volumen 56 Número 2 - abril 2026 , 27 p.</text>
</part>
</relatedItem>
<recordInfo>
<recordContentSource authority="marcorg">MAP</recordContentSource>
<recordCreationDate encoding="marc">260428</recordCreationDate>
<recordChangeDate encoding="iso8601">20260603180820.0</recordChangeDate>
<recordIdentifier source="MAP">MAP20260013381</recordIdentifier>
<languageOfCataloging>
<languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">spa</languageTerm>
</languageOfCataloging>
</recordInfo>
</mods>
</modsCollection>