Financial valuation of retirement village via stochastic modelling of disability prevalence rates

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      <subfield code="a">Financial valuation of retirement village via stochastic modelling of disability prevalence rates</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Jackie Li...[et al.]</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">The article develops Bayesian common factor models to project disability prevalence and mortality rates by age and sex in Australia. Based on these stochastic projections, the expected duration of residence in retirement villages is estimated and the associated contracts are financially valued. The approach incorporates both process and parameter uncertainty using MCMC simulations. The results make it possible to calculate expected present values and equivalent annuities in order to assess business profitability and risk. The study provides a novel methodology for the actuarial valuation of contracts linked to population ageing</subfield>
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